how to invesment in gold 2

Bars
The most traditional way of investing in gold is by buying bullion gold bars. In some countries, like Austria, Liechtenstein and Switzerland, these can easily be bought or sold "over the counter" of the major banks. Alternatively, there are bullion dealers which provide the same service. Bars are available in various sizes, for example in Europe these would typically be in 12.5kg or 1kg bars (1kg = 32.15072 Troy ounces), although many other weights exist, such as the Tael, the 10oz or 1oz bar.

Buying gold coins is a popular way of holding gold. Typically bullion coins are priced according to their weight, with little or no premium above the gold price. Amongst the most popular bullion gold coins are the South African Krugerrand, the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf, the American Gold Eagle, the American Gold Buffalo, and the Australian Gold Nugget, all of which contain exactly one troy ounce of gold each. Other popular one ounce bullion coins include the Chinese Panda, and the Austrian Philharmonic. Gold coins which are used as bullion coins include the British gold sovereign and the Swiss Vreneli, but these are much lighter than one ounce. Again the large Swiss and Liechtenstein banks will buy and sell these coins over the counter. Also available is the gold dinar which has Islamic significance.

Certificates
A certificate of ownership can be held by gold investors, instead of storing the actual gold bullion. Gold certificates allow investors to buy and sell the security without the hassles associated with the transfer of actual physical gold. The Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP) is the only government guaranteed gold certificate program in the world. Some argue that it is not the same as owning the real thing, as a certificate is just a piece of paper, especially in a war, crisis, or credit collapse.

Accounts
Most Swiss banks offer gold accounts where gold can be instantly bought or sold just like any foreign currency. Digital gold currency accounts and the BullionVault gold exchange work on a similar principle. Gold accounts are typically backed through unallocated or allocated gold storage. Different accounts impose varying levels of intermediation between the client and their gold, for example through bailment or within a trust. Bailment is the legal action of a client entrusting their physical property to another party for safekeeping, and paying for the service.

Exchange-traded funds
Gold exchange-traded funds (or GETFs) are traded like shares on the major stock exchanges including London, New York and Sydney. The first gold ETF, Gold Bullion Securities (ticker symbol "GOLD"), was launched in March 2003 on the Australian Stock Exchange, and originally represented exactly one-tenth of an ounce of gold. Due to costs, the amount of gold in each certificate is now slightly less. They are fully backed by gold which is both deposited and insured. The inventory of gold is managed by buying and selling gold on the open market [6].

Gold ETFs represent an easy way to gain exposure to the gold price, without the inconvenience of storing physical bars. Typically a small commission is charged for trading in gold ETFs and a small annual storage fee is charged. The annual expenses of the fund such as storage, insurance, and management fees are charged by selling a small amount of gold represented by each certificate, so the amount of gold in each certificate will gradually decline over time. In some countries, gold ETFs represent a way to avoid the sales tax or the VAT which would apply to physical gold coins and bars. Economies of scale, liquidity, and ease of purchase and sale make ETFs an increasingly popular method of investing in gold.

Spread betting
Firms such as Cantor Index and IG Index, both from the UK, offer the ability to take a bet on the price of gold through what is known as a spread bet. Say the price of December gold was quoted at $475.10 to $476.10 per troy ounce. An investor who thought the price would go down would "sell" at $475.10. The minimum bet is $2 per point, (i.e. equivalent to 200 ounces). If the price of gold finished at $480.10 when the seller closed their bet, the loss would be 500 points multiplied by the bet of $2 making a loss of $1000 in total. No commissions or taxes are levied in the UK on spread betting.

Derivatives
Derivatives, such as gold forwards, futures and options, currently trade on various exchanges around the world and over-the-counter (OTC) directly in the private market. In the U.S., gold futures are primarily traded on the New York Commodities Exchange (COMEX), a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). In November 2006, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) in India introduced 100 gram gold futures.

Mining companies
These do not represent gold at all, but rather are shares in gold mining companies. If the gold price rises, the profits of the gold mining company could be expected to rise and as a result the share price may rise. However, there are many factors to take into account and it is not always the case that a share price will rise when the gold price increases. Some of the following questions might be relevant before investing in the shares of a gold mining company: Has the company hedged the gold price i.e. already sold part of its future gold production through forward sales? Is the company already producing gold, or is it mainly exploring for gold? Does the company make a profit? How many years of ore reserves are left in the mines before they have to be closed down? What P/E ratio and dividend yield does the company have now and in the following years? Are the mines subject to political or economic risks?

Unlike gold bullion, which is regarded as a safe haven asset, gold shares or funds are regarded as high risk and extremely volatile. This volatility is due to the inherent leverage in the mining sector. For example, if you own a share in a gold mine where the costs of production are $300 per ounce and the price of gold is $600, the mine's profit margin will be $300. A 10% increase in the gold price to $660 per ounce will push that margin up to $360, which actually represents a 20% increase in the mine's profitability, and potentially a 20% increase in the share price. Conversely, a 10% fall in the gold price to $540 will decrease that margin to $240, which actually represents a 20% fall in the mine's profitability, and potentially a 20% decrease in the share price. The amplification of gold mining profits during periods of rising prices can cause a gold rush in mining exploration.

In order to reduce this volatility many gold mining companies hedge the gold price up to 18 months in advance. This provides the mining company and investor with less exposure to short term gold price fluctuations, but reduces potential returns when the gold price is rising. The AMEX Gold BUGS Index is comprised of the largest unhedged gold stocks listed on AMEX (BUGS - Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks). As of January 2007, the two largest stocks listed in the index were Goldcorp and Newmont Mining. The AMEX Gold BUGS Index (ticker symbol "HUI") has outperformed general gold mining stocks, represented by the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ("XAU"), over recent years.

Instead of personally selecting individual companies, some investors prefer spreading their risk by investing in gold mining mutual funds such as the Gold & General Fund by Merrill Lynch, or exchange-traded funds such as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) .

Investment strategies
Investors may base their investment decisions on fundamental analysis. These investors analyze the macroeconomic situation, which includes international economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, productivity, and energy prices. They would also analyze the total global gold supply versus demand. Over 2005 the World Gold Council estimated total global gold supply to be 3,859 tonnes and demand to be 3,754 tonnes, giving a surplus of 105 tonnes. Others point out that total mine production is only about 2,500 tonnes each year, leaving a 1,300 tonne deficit that must be made up by central bank or private sales.[7]. While gold production is unlikely to change in the near future, supply and demand due to private ownership is highly liquid and subject to rapid changes. This makes gold very different from almost every other commodity.

Gold versus stocks
The value of a "share" of the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of an ounce of gold. A surrogate index was used to generate all points before 1897. Chart generously provided by www.sharelynx.com

Gold's performance is often compared to stocks. They are fundamentally different asset classes: gold is a store of value whereas stocks are a return on value. In a stable political climate with strong property rights and little turmoil, one would expect stocks to significantly outperform gold. The attached graph shows the value of Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of an ounce of gold. Since 1800, stocks have consistently gained value in comparison to gold due in part to the stability of the American political system. This appreciation has been cyclical and it appears that the next 10 or more years will favor the performance of gold over stocks. An extrapolation of the long term trendline pegs the Dow/Gold ratio at roughly 20. As the end of the first quarter of 2007, that ratio was 18.76 and trending downward.

Technical analysis
As with stocks, gold investors may base their investment decision partly on, or solely on, technical analysis. Typically this involves analyzing chart patterns, moving averages and market trends, in order to speculate on the future price.

Using leverage
Bullish investors may choose to leverage their position by borrowing money against their existing gold assets and then purchasing more gold on account with the loaned funds. In order to keep the cost of debt to a minimum, these individuals would normally seek a loan in the currency with the lowest LIBOR, which as of April 2006 was the Japanese yen. This technique is referred to as a "yen-gold carry trade". Leverage is also an integral part of buying gold derivatives. Leverage may increase investment gains but also increases risk, as if the gold price decreases the investor may be subject to a margin call.

Gold's value versus money supply
For many years, the dollar was pegged to the gold standard.
Historically increases in the supply of paper money or fiat currency through increased money supply would cause the demand for gold to increase. There was a time when gold was money and vice versa. If citizens felt that there may be insufficient gold to cover the paper money in circulation, they would queue up at the bank to change their paper currency back into gold.
However, since the gold standard was ended on August 15, 1971, governments have been free to print as much money as they choose, without fear that their populations will come knocking on the central bank's door demanding to change their paper money back into gold.

In January 1959 US M3 money supply was $288.8 billion, and the official gold reserves of the United States was then 17,335.1 tonnes, or 557,336,000 ounces (there are 32,150.7 troy ounces in a tonne). That means that in 1959, there were $518 in circulation for every ounce of gold reserves held by the USA. Although the theoretical price should then have been $518 per ounce, the actual price, as fixed under the gold standard was only $35 an ounce.

By August 2005, the US M3 money supply had risen to $9,873.9 billion, whilst at the same time the Official Gold Holdings of the United States had fallen to just 8,133.5 tonnes, or 261.50 million Troy Ounces . This means that today, in 2005, there are $37,831 in circulation for every troy ounce of gold held by the United States.

However, this increase of 75 times in the ratio of central bank gold holdings to debt does not allow for the fact that the gold standard was abandoned in 1971 and gold holdings have been deliberately and considerably reduced. Another far less dramatic way of looking at the same figures is this: In 1959 US government debt valued in gold was 8 billion Troy ounces, in 2005 US government debt was 20 billion ounces gold - an increase of only 2.5 times.

The above numbers show the falling influence of gold in today's monetary system. Gold bugs believe, or hope, that one day gold's importance will return as the printing of paper money gets out of control and we end in a hyper-inflationary fiat money collapse.

The US Federal Reserve ceased publishing M3 data on 23 March 2006, with the last published data indicating a year-on-year growth rate of 8.23%. Central banks may see this as a reason to limit further increases in their reserves of dollars, and thus alternatives such as gold or the euro might be considered. Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, said gold was still benefiting from August 30, 2006 release of the minutes to the last rate-setting meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The minutes to the August 8, 2006 meeting, at which the Federal Open Market Committee kept short-term interest rates unchanged for the first time since 2004, supported the view that US borrowing costs have peaked.

Supply
In 2001, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 145,000 tonnes , which would form a cube with 20.03 meter edges. Global gold mine production is between 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes per year, which would mean that about 155,000 tonnes of gold would have been mined as of 2006, with a total value of $3.2 trillion at June 2006 prices.

Bulls versus bears
Many argue that gold's role in the world's monetary system has ended, and that it will never again represent the store of value that it once was. The gold price peaked at around $850/oz t ($27,300,000 per tonne) in 1980, and in real terms is still well below that. However, since April 2001 the gold price has more than doubled in value against the US dollar , prompting speculation to circulate that this long secular bear market (or the Great Commodities Depression) has ended and a bull market has returned.

Taxation
Gold maintains a special position in the market with many tax regimes. For example, in the European Union the trading of recognised gold coins and bullion products is free of VAT. Silver, and other precious metals or commodities, do not have the same allowance. Other taxes such as capital gains tax may still apply for individuals, according to their jurisdiction. There is no capital gains tax in Switzerland.