how to invesment in gold
Gold as a financial asset
Gold and other precious metals are assets that are both tangible and liquid (i.e. easily traded), unlike real estate which is tangible but not liquid, or company shares and bonds which are liquid but not tangible.
Considering its high density and high value per unit mass, storing and transporting gold is very easy. Gold also does not corrode. Historically, it was also very easy to verify that an offered coin had the density of gold through the use of Archimedes' principle. Today, however, some metals are denser than gold yet cheaper. While some think gold deserves special treatment based on its cultural value and use as money, others consider gold a commodity, like copper or lead.
For centuries gold has been used as a store of value. When viewed from the historical perspective of a multicentury time frame, no other investment has the wealth preserving power of gold. Other assets are dependent upon a certain government or political climate to retain value, appreciate, and not be excessively taxed, but gold is largely independent of political climate (with the exception of laws specifically confiscating gold as Franklin Roosevelt did). Gold investors believe that political and economic turmoil may have a negative influence on the value of their other investments, but the opposite effect on the value of gold.
Types of gold investor
Physical gold can be anonymous. Gold is a very soft metal, meaning that (assuming the gold is in the physical possession of the owner) a bar's serial number can be altered or obliterated with a hammer and chisel. Bullion coins typically will have no serial numbers in the first place. If the bullion's ownership is not recorded anywhere the gold can become untraceable. Cacheurs seek to hide part of their wealth from their spouse, family, tax authorities, creditors, thieves, invaders or others. The density of gold allows them to store a large value in a very small space, without fear of depreciation or erosion over a long period of time.
Central banks
Although central banks as a whole have been net sellers of gold over the last few years, some have been buyers. A central bank may invest in gold in order to ensure that part of its reserves are held in a liquid and tangible form which could be used quickly in times of crisis. Most central banks keep the majority of their reserves in USD, but like any other investor diversification makes sense. The dollar is a liability of the United States of America. Its value thus depends on the USA honoring it in exchange for goods or services. Central banks may fear that in a time of crisis, or if there were a USD crisis, dollars may not prove to be useful. This might happen if sanctions or exchange controls exist. The banking system may make it hard to move USD if restrictions were imposed.
Currency speculator
Since the main gold market is priced in US dollars, speculators who believe the dollar will decline may buy gold. They think that if the dollar declines, the gold price will remain constant in other currencies, thus rising in terms of the U.S. dollar. Gold may also be bought if they feel that a different currency will decline, since they expect the dollar price to be stable, but the foreign currency price to rise.
Financial institutions
Banks and funds may invest in gold to protect themselves against potential loss on gold linked products that they have issued. These may include gold certificates, options, forward contracts, gold linked notes and other products containing a derivative feature linked to the gold price.
Gold bug
Gold bugs, in the traditional sense, believe in, fear, or even hope for another Great Depression or Armageddon, and believe that by holding gold they will survive and prosper.
Hoarder
Some investors consider gold as a long-term store of value and invest in it to maintain their purchasing power. By buying gold and hanging on for the long term, they believe they can keep their wealth intact.
Libertarian
Libertarians may use privately issued digital gold currency, in preference to fiat currency, for reasons such as lack of trust in fractional-reserve banking or monetary policy.
Petroleum speculator
There is a strong historical correlation between the price of oil and the price of gold. The general rule is that the price of an ounce of gold is 10 times the price of a barrel of oil. This is in part because mining gold is an energy intensive process, the cost to mine an ounce of gold will increase as the price of oil increases and in part because they are both commodities and often affected by the same economic stimuli. Buying gold is one way for a speculator to bet on the price of oil going up.
Portfolio hedger
Similar to asset allocators, except the purpose of the investment is to hedge against rapid inflation or unforeseen calamities which may affect other investments negatively. These individuals believe that certain events, if they occur (e.g. war or economic crisis), may have a negative influence on the value of their other investments, but the opposite effect on the value of their gold.
Speculator
Speculators attempt to make a profit by predicting the gold price. They may think that macroeconomics are affecting the demand for gold, or believe they have detected a market trend showing them the future price direction.
Espionage
The survival kit issued to US and British Fighter Pilots includes gold sovereigns to help bribe local officials independent of local currencies . In the James Bond books by Ian Fleming, James regularly travelled wearing a belt containing 20 gold sovereigns.
Gold price
The usual benchmark for the price of gold is known as the London Gold Fixing, a twice-daily (telephone) meeting of representatives from five bullion-trading firms. Furthermore, there is active gold trading based on the intra-day spot price, derived from gold-trading markets around the world as they open and close throughout the day.
Factors influencing the gold price
This ancient Egyptian golden bowl was buried in the tomb of a pharaoh and today sits in the British Museum. Gold items were often buried with pharaohs to use in the after-life, because gold is free from corrosion or decay.
Today, like all investments and commodities, the price of gold is ultimately driven by supply and demand, including hoarding and dis-hoarding. Unlike most other commodities, the hoarding and dis-hoarding plays a much bigger role in affecting the price, since almost all the gold ever mined still exists and is potentially able to come on to the market at the right price. Given the huge quantity of above ground hoarded gold, compared to the annual production, the price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than changes in annual production or gold jewelry demand.
Central banks and the International Monetary Fund play an important role in the gold price. At the end of 2004 central banks and official organisations held 19 percent of all above ground gold as official gold reserves. The Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG) which dates from September 1999, limits gold sales by its members (Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) to less than 400 tonnes a year. European central banks, such as the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank, have been key sellers of gold over this period.
In November 2005, Russia, Argentina and South Africa expressed interest in increasing their gold holdings. Other than Russia, these are not viewed as significant central banks, but any move by Japan, China or South Korea to do the same would be seen as significant. Currently the United States Federal Reserve has 16% of its assets in gold, whereas China holds approximately 1% in gold.
Although central banks do not generally announce gold purchases in advance, some such as Russia have expressed interest in growing their gold reserves again as of late 2005. In early 2006, China, who only holds 1.3% of its reserves in gold, announced that it was looking for ways to improve the returns on its official reserves. Many bulls took this as a thinly veiled signal that gold would play a larger role in China's reserves, which they hope will push up the price of gold.
Inflation fears have also been influential in the past. The October 2005 consumer price index level of 199.2 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in October 2004. During the first ten months of 2005, the CPI-U rose at a 4.9 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.3 percent for all of 2004.
Inflation 1923-24: A woman in Germany feeds her tiled stove with money. The money was worth less than firewood.
A 500,000,000,000 (500 billion) Yugoslavia dinar banknote circa 1993, the largest nominal value ever officially printed in Yugoslavia, the final result of hyperinflation. Photo courtesy of National Bank of Serbia.
Sentiment
It used to be said that "Gold is the world's frightened bunny". Whenever crisis threatened, the demand for physical gold increased.
Bank failures
When dollars were fully convertible into gold, both were regarded as money. However, most people preferred to carry around paper banknotes rather than the somewhat heavier and less divisible gold coins. If people feared their bank would fail, a bank run might have been the result. This is what happened in the USA during the Great Depression of the 1930s, leading President Roosevelt to impose a national emergency and to outlaw the holding of gold by US citizens.
Inflation
Paper currencies pose a risk of being inflated, possibly to the point of hyperinflation. Historically, currencies have lost their value in this way over time. In times of inflation, people seek to protect their savings by purchasing liquid, tangible assets that are valued for some other purpose. Gold is in this respect a good candidate, since producing more is far more difficult than issuing new fiat currency, and its value does not rely on any particular government's health.
Low or negative real interest rates
Gold has a long history of being an inflation proof investment. During times of low or negative real interest rates when significant inflation is present and interest rates are relatively low investors seek the safe haven of gold to protect their capital. A prime example of this is the period of Stagflation that occurred during the 1970s and which led to an economic bubble forming in precious metals.
War, invasion, looting, crisis
In times of national crisis, people fear that their assets may be seized, and the currency may become worthless. They see gold as a solid asset which will always buy food or transportation. Thus in times of great uncertainty, particularly when war is feared, the demand for gold rises.
Production
According to the World Gold Council, annual gold production over the last few years has been close to 2,500 tonnes. However, the effects of official gold sales (500 tonnes), scrap sales (850 tonnes), and producer hedging activities take the annual gold supply to around 3,500 tonnes.
Demand
About 3,000 tonnes goes into jewelry or industrial/dental production, and around 500 tonnes goes to retail investors and exchange traded gold funds.
Supply and demand
Some investors consider that supply and demand factors are less relevant than with other commodities since most of the gold ever mined is still above ground and available for sale at a price. However, supply and demand do play a role. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand rose 29% in the first half of 2005. The increase came mainly from the launch of a gold exchange-traded fund, but also from jewelry. Gold demand was at an all time record. Demand from the electronics industry is rising by 11% a year, jewelry by 19%, and industrial and dental by 21%.
Methods of investing in gold
Investment in gold can be done directly through ownership, or indirectly through certificates, accounts, shares, futures etc.
Other than storing gold in one's own safe deposit box at a bank, gold can also be placed in allocated (also known as non-fungible), or unallocated (fungible or pooled) storage with a bank or dealer. In the case of the latter going bankrupt, the client will be unable to claim the gold and would become a general creditor, whereas gold held in allocated storage should be returned to the client in full. However even with gold held in allocated storage, many gold bugs would still choose their storage provider carefully, making sure of high net worth, with some preferring an offshore bank or storage facility.
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